Irrational Exuberance...

In just over 24 hours, the Sharks will take to the ice against the Edmonton Oilers to start the 2007 NHL season. This moment will end one of the most surprising, and honestly, disappointing offseasons in Shark history.

That thought should not be forgotten by you, because it already has been by the many hockey writers around the web. I previously blogged about the hockey writers of Canada picking the Sharks to win it all, and now ESPN is joining the masses. There is now no doubt that the Sharks are the consensus pick to win the Stanley Cup.

Please don't kill me when I say... really?

Don't get me wrong. I love the Sharks. Nothing would make me happier than to see Joe Thornton hoist Lord Stanley's Cup. I just have a very difficult time believing the arguments supporting them as preseason favorites. Those arguments are, in order of greatest importance as expressed by those writers:

1. The Detroit Red Wings and Anaheim Ducks (especially) have lost key members of from their rosters.
2. The Sharks have the greatest playmaker in the league - Joe Thornton.
3. Their goaltending and supporting players are solid from top-to-bottom.
4. Those questions about heart, resilience, and burning desire? Uh... what questions?

Here's where I have issue:

1. True. But do you really consider a team "improved" just because the competition has gotten worse? I'm not a better basketball players just because I can swat a 6th grader's shot. Not to mention, who knows what Selanne and Niedermayer are thinking? Of all sources, Randy Hann expresses considerable doubt that those two will sit at home for all of 07-08.
2. 100% true, no argument here.
3. The Sharks are indeed returning most of their players, but the losses are not to be dismissed. As Ray Ratto points out, is Dmitri Patzold better than Vesa Toskala? Is Rob Davison better than Scott Hannan?
4. Apparently most hockey writers did not watch the Sharks get bounced out of the last 2 postseasons. The Sharks didn't lose because of talented players on other teams, they didn't lose because of an underperforming Joe Thornton, they didn't because of a lack of talent throughout the lineup - the Sharks lost because they got knocked down and could not get back up again. This problem has not been remedied to my satisfaction. The leadership is all the same, the roster is mostly the same, and the closest thing we have to a new, vocal leader is a dinosaur who's gonna play 5 minutes a night. There, I said it.

I feel better. Now, how should we, as dedicated in-the-know Sharks fans approach the season? Stay tuned, loyal Bucketheads.