Monday, March 30, 2009

Probable Playoff Opponent

As a math nerd who is a little too obsessed with hockey, I spend an inordinate amount of time goofing off with Excel and fantasizing about the NHL playoffs.

You can imagine I'm quite the lady killer.

I came across these two sites that predict the final standings of the Western Conference. I took the probability of San Jose taking either 1st or 2nd and multiplied it by the probability of each other team landing in the 8th or 7th seed to find an "expected value" of facing each of the following teams in the playoffs.

The percentages on these sites could be completely pulled from the owner's asses and this information isn't really relevant to anyone, but I spent 10 minutes working on it so you can take these percentages as Gospel.

According to PlayoffStatus.com:
  • St.Louis - 22.8%
  • Nashville - 21.5%
  • Anaheim - 20.1%
  • Columbus - 14.3%
  • Edmonton - 13.9%
  • Minnesota - 6.3%
According to SportsClubStats.com:
  • Nashville - 22.3%
  • St. Louis - 22.1%
  • Anaheim - 20.7%
  • Edmonton - 12.4%
  • Columbus - 11.2%
  • Minnesota - 10.4%

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